We are at the beginning of the peanut harvest, which usually coincides with our festival season. Normally, the outlook for new crop business is quite positive during this period.
However, this year seems slightly different. Globally, we are experiencing anomalies in weather, currency, energy etc and resultant effects of all these factors on the trade. Any statements made, any views taken on the commodities, could turn haywire quite quickly due to unanticipated factors.
With a good monsoon once again, partly thanks to the La Nina effect, this is resulting in a peanut crop that is fairly similar in numbers to the last season. We anticipate that Gujarat alone will have about 2.8 – 3.0 million tons of peanuts in shell. Rajasthan would be at about 1.2 – 1.4 million tons. Combined with the other states / provinces, we estimate that India will have a total Winter crop of about 6.2 – 6.5 Million Tons of In-shell.
With this precursor, we continue to provide our view on the Indian markets in the coming few months.
The BULLS –
1. The Minimum support price remains unchanged from last year, hence there could always be government buying if prices drop significantly from current levels. Based on last years experience, we do not expect farmers to tender much cargo to the government.
2. Local demand for kernels continues to rise, so as exporters, we need to compete with local consumers who often pay better prices. This removes any desperation to sell cargo in the export markets if prices drop.
3. Local demand for oil has also been stable. With the health benefits taking centre stage post Covid, we expect a lot of material to disappear here.
4. China has a shorter crop and may need to buy some product ( kernels and oil ) for arrival before the Chinese new year in January 2023. How much of the demand comes to India remains to be seen but this could be a significant factor.
5. Russia & Iran continue to patronise India due to friendly relations and flexible payment methods and currencies.
6. Freight rates are correcting to 2020 levels gradually and some sectors are already 70 % off their highs. This means room for price expansion for the product or cheaper product, hence better consumption.
The BEARS –
7. Palm Oil markets are significantly lower than October 2021 and this would keep all the Veg Oils in check globally and hence oil seeds.
8. Dollar strength has made it prohibitive for many peanuts consumers to import and maintain previous pricing which could lead to lower demand.
9. Economic recession leading to change in consumption patterns.
10. Excessive supply / production from African origins towards the end of the year.
October 2022 shipping is available on request, from our end we can indicate prices for Nov – Dec 2022 shipping as follows on FOB basis for Non EU –
Bold 35/40 : USD. 1320.00 pmt
Bold 38/42 : USD. 1295.00 pmt
Bold 40/50 : USD. 1235.00 pmt
Bold 50/60 : USD. 1220.00 pmt
Bold 60/70 : USD. 1190.00 pmt
Bold 70/80 : USD. 1175.00 pmt
Java 50/60 : USD. 1290.00 pmt
Java 60/70 : USD. 1270.00 pmt
Java 70/80 : USD. 1255.00 pmt
Java 80/90 : USD. 1250.00 pmt
Java 90/100 : USD. 1235.00 pmt
Java 140/160 : USD. 1220.00 pmt
Java Type 50/60 : USD. 1270.00 pmt
Java Type 60/70 : USD. 1245.00 pmt
Java type 70/80 : USD. 1240.00 pmt
Java Type 80/90 : USD. 1235.00 pmt
Java Type 90/100 : USD. 1220.00 pmt
Blanched Whole 40/50 : USD. 1625.00 pmt ( vacuum packed )
Blanched Whole 50/60 : USD. 1595.00 pmt ( vacuum packed )
Blanched Splits 40/50 : USD. 1585.00 pmt ( vacuum packed )
Blanched Splits 50/60 : USD. 1545.00 pmt ( vacuum packed )
Groundnut In Shells : USD. 935.00 pmt
We also offer diced and sliced, blanched and roasted peanuts.
Crude Groundnut Oil prices available on request. Current range is USD. 1920 – 1940.00 pmt fob for Nov – Dec shipping in flexi tanks
Peanuts and In-Shells can be packed in 1.8kg, 25kg, 50 kg, 1000 kg or vacuum bags as per customer requirements.
Looking forward to mutually benefical business in the new season.