Until last week we saw peak arrivals of sesame seed at about 2000 tons per day on an average in practically all the market yards of Gujarat. The quality of the material is very good as we were not subject to the vagaries of weather like we usually are during the winter crop. This quality helps with the local retail demand and also gives a better looking end product for the sortex grade. As monsoon sets in, this supply would gradually taper off since farmers get busy with planting for the new season.
While export demand seems to be quite slow, between previous export sales and domestic demand, we have seen the markets move up by over USD. 100.00 per ton in the last 7 – 10 days. While there is no real logic for this, there are a number of possibilities doing the rounds –
1. It always starts with crop sizes and the initial estimate of 150,000 – 175,000 mt now being lowered to about 125,000 or even 100,000 tons. Guesstimate for last year being around 150,000 tons (white and black combined) for sake of perspective.
2. The second factor is local Stockists who, until last month were supposedly occupied with Coriander, Wheat, Cumin etc somehow have managed to access more funds and warehouse space to stock sesame seed.
3. The local pipelines were empty as there is hardly an imported seed coming into India and in view of a large summer crop, everyone has sold whatever material they had.
4. Since it is 4 months to the winter crop, some hulling factories would rather cover some material right now to run their factories.
5. In a rising market, no one wants to sell and everyone wants to buy hence material just disappears without explanations.
All said and done, while generally unexpected, the mood has turned from bearish to fairly bullish. Prices were very attractive last month from buyers perspective and many did cover some requirements. The depth of the market in terms of local shorts cannot yet be fathomed and this covering continues even today. At current levels we are still fairly competitive as an origin.
Given the current volatile situation, we are risking price indications as below –
SUMMER CROP 2022, FOB Mundra Basis –
Whitish Natural 99/1/1 – USD. 1475.00 – 1495.00 pmt
Whitish Natural Sortex, 99.95 % – USD. 1565.00 – 1590.00 pmt
Black 99/1 Sortex – USD. 1710.00 – 1725.00 pmt
Jet Black, Sortex – USD. 1870.00 – 1890.00 pmt
Hulled Sesame, 99.95 % – USD. 1910.00 – 1930.00 pmt
Hulled Sesame, 99.98 % – USD. 1935.00 – 1945.00 pmt